The Signal and the Noise
The Signal and the Noise UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVEROne of the more momentous books of the decade. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with…
Specifikacia The Signal and the Noise
The Signal and the Noise
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVEROne of the more momentous books of the decade. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. --The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty.
Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Both experts and laypeople mistake more